Spinks has a post on WoW sub levels.  The interesting thing to note is that for the past few months it seems WoW’s continuing upward trend has, possibly for the first time, stalled. Subscriptions seem to have stabilised at 11.5 million. For the first time since this game’s release, the number of people playing this game has plateau’ed.

So, is it all doom and gloom? Generally these trends follow a Bell Curve, once having peaked the numbers begin to decline, at first a snowball and eventually, an avalanche.

Having said that, Blizzard is probably one of few companies out there who can stymie the trend.  Cataclysm is rather unqiue as a prospect within the MMORPG industry, a radical reworking fo the early game as opposed to an extension of the endgame. It’s a bit of a gamble, but it could certainly pay off. My question is, has WoW, regardless, reached it’s sell by date? Could the focus of Cataclysm on reinvigorating the early game, frustrate those players who want more raiding, more endgame, and cause them to ragequit… all this without luring new players and resubs from people who’ve moved on to other pastures? Therein lies the gamble. And it looks to be a big one.

2010 could very well be the year WoW begins the downward spiral. Of course the point as always is, do you enjoy the game? Whether everyone else does or does not shouldn’t matter.  As long as Blizzard keeps things fun, WoW should live on for many a year to come, even if it never sees that 12th million subscriber.

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